Few things in Counter-Strike are as exciting as opening CS2 cases. It’s that rush of hoping for a rare knife or gloves that keeps players hooked. Each case brings the same question—will you land a basic skin or something more valuable? That constant anticipation, along with the intrigue of CS2 (CS:GO) case odds, makes case openings such a fun part of the game.
We’ve put together this guide to give you all the details, whether you’re looking to improve your odds or searching for the best CS2 (CS:GO) case opening sites. From how the CS2 (CS:GO) case odds work to tips on boosting your chances, we cover it all.
If you’re new to case openings, this blog will guide you through getting the most out of every case.
What Are CS2 (CS:GO) Odds?
CS2 (CS:GO) case odds are all about your chances when opening a case in Counter-Strike 2. Whether you’re hoping to score a rare weapon skin, a knife, or some cool gloves, the odds determine how likely you are to get what you want. These odds are based on things like the rarity of the item, wear condition, and if it has special features like StatTrak™.
Why are these odds important? They give you a better sense of what’s likely to happen, helping you make more informed choices when it comes to case openings. If you understand how slim the chances are of unboxing that rare item, you won’t be as disappointed if it doesn’t happen. Plus, you’ll be better equipped to plan your spending and strategize how to maximize your in-game investments.
When you start to understand how CS2 (CS:GO) case odds work, you’re in a much better position to make your money work for you in the game. Why leave it all to chance when you can make better decisions? Instead of just opening cases, consider trading for that rare skin. Or you might want to wait until a special event rolls around when the odds could tip in your favor.
Basically, there are five levels of rarity, and many cases include items from all of these tiers. The odds determine your chances of receiving an item from one of these rarities. You can see below how they grouped:
- Rare / Mil-Spec (Blue) – 79.92%
- Mythical / Restricted (Purple) – 15.98%
- Legendary / Classified (Pink) – 3.2%
- Ancient / Covert (Red) – 0.64%
- Exceedingly Rare Special (Gold) – 0.26%
How CS2 (CS:GO) Odds Work
Alright, let us explain it to you. CS2 (CS:GO) case odds are your chances of landing specific items when you open a case in Counter-Strike 2. Every time you crack open a case, these odds come into play, deciding what item you’ll end up with.
The items are sorted into different rarity levels, which show how common or hard-to-get they are. You’ve got your basic skins, which are pretty easy to get, and then you’ve got the super rare stuff like knives or gloves, which are much harder to find. As the item becomes rarer, the odds of getting it drop even further. Let’s explore the main factors that affect your chances of obtaining rare CS2 skins.
Factors Affecting CS2 (CS:GO) Odds
When you’re opening cases in CS2, your chances of getting that rare item depend on more than just luck. A few key factors come into play, such as the rarity of the skin, the wear level, and whether it’s a StatTrak™ item. Let’s take a closer look at what impacts your CS2 (CS:GO) case odds.
Rarity Tiers and Fixed Probabilities
You can think of each rarity tier as having difficulty in unboxing items. The higher the tier, the harder it is for you to get, which means the item’s usually worth more. Consumer-grade items are super common, so they aren’t really worth much. But a Covert skin? That’s much harder to get and can be quite valuable.
Items are divided into different rarity tiers, each with its own color and difficulty level to obtain:
- Consumer Grade (White): The most common and easiest to find.
- Industrial Grade (Light Blue): These are still pretty common but just a bit harder to find than Consumer Grade.
- Mil-Spec (Darker blue): Slightly harder to come by, offering a mid-level rarity.
- Restricted (Purple): These are less common, making them more appealing to collectors.
- Classified (Pinkish purple): Rarer still, with a lower chance of dropping.
- Covert (Red): The rarest and most valuable items with the toughest odds of unboxing.
StatTrak™ Variants
CS2 items with the StatTrak™ feature are a bit special. They come with a kill counter that keeps track of how many enemies you’ve taken down with that weapon. What makes StatTrak™ items special is how much more unique and desirable they are than regular skins.
But since they’re in high demand, they’re tougher to unbox. The chances of landing a StatTrak™ version are slimmer, meaning it takes a bit more luck to get one. But if you do, it’s definitely something you can be proud of in the game!
Wear Levels of Items
Wear levels in CS2 are all about the float value, a scale from 0.00 to 1.00 that shows the amount of wear on a skin. The lower the float, the better shape the skin is in. Each skin falls into one of five wear levels based on its float:
- Battle-Scarred (0.45 to 1.00): Pretty beat up, with lots of visible wear.
- Well-Worn (0.38 to 0.45): Still shows a lot of use, but is in slightly better shape.
- Field-Tested (0.15 to 0.38): There’s noticeable wear, but it’s still in decent shape.
- Minimal Wear (0.07 to 0.15): Almost like new, with just a few imperfections.
- Factory New (0.00 to 0.07): In perfect condition, with no visible wear.
The float value affects how the skin looks and its market value. Skins with lower floats (closer to 0.00) are usually more desirable and sell for higher prices, while those with higher floats (closer to 1.00) are less valuable. So, when you’re trading or unboxing, always check the float value—it’s a big factor in figuring out how much your item is worth.
Valve’s Official Odds Disclosure
In response to pressure from China’s Ministry of Culture, Valve disclosed the official case odds for CS2 in 2017, giving players more transparency around loot crate systems.
They explained that each rarity tier is five times more difficult to obtain than the previous one, and ‘Gold’ drops occur at a 2:5 ratio compared to ‘Covert’ drops.
Valve wants to ensure you’re fully aware of the odds when you’re opening cases in CS2, making the process more transparent. They’ve shared an official odds disclosure so you can see your chances for each item rarity when you crack open a case. This way, you know what to expect, whether it’s a common Consumer-grade skin, a rare Covert item, or those super hard-to-get knives or gloves.
They also tell you how likely it is to get a StatTrak™ version, which is usually tougher to snag than the regular ones. Plus, if you’re opening cases during special events, Valve gives you a heads-up on how the odds might change.
So, even though you have a good idea of your chances, remember that success is never guaranteed. The randomness of case openings means you could get lucky and score big on your first try, or you might end up opening several cases without landing that rare item you’re after.
Best Odds for Different CS2 (CS:GO) Cases
If you already know how case ratios work and how items are categorized, you’re on the right track. Every CS2 case has its odds for dropping different items, from common Mil-Spec skins to those super rare knives and gloves. Knowing these odds can help you make smarter choices when deciding which cases to open, giving you a better shot at choosing those valuable or rare skins.
Let’s take a closer look at the odds for weapon, glove, knife, and sticker cases, so you can maximize your case-opening results.
Weapon Case Odds
Weapon Cases in CS2 are your go-to for unlocking skins for various weapons. Valve releases these cases every few months, featuring both community-made designs and Valve’s own creations. The rarities range from common skins to rare knives and gloves. According to Valve’s official case odds, here’s what we know:
| Rarity | Color | Odds | Simplified Odds |
| Mil-Spec Grade | Dark Blue | 79.92% | 4 in 5 |
| Restricted | Purple | 15.98% | 1 in 6 |
| Classified | Pink | 3.2% | 1 in 31 |
| Covert | Red | 0.64% | 1 in 156 |
| Exceedingly Rare | Gold | 0.26% | 1 in 385 |
So, If you want gloves or a knife, the chances are super low, only 0.26%. That means you’ll likely need to open 385 cases, but remember, it’s all chance you could open even more and still not get one.
Glove Case Odds
In addition to weapon cases, Glove Cases give you a shot at scoring rare glove skins, which replace knives as the top-tier item, with odds of roughly 1 in 400. However, to have a chance at getting gloves, you need to open a case where the “Exceedingly Rare” item list includes glove skins. Below are some examples of glove skins that can be found in Glove Cases:
- Sport Gloves | Pandora’s Box
- Sport Gloves | Superconductor
- Sport Gloves | Vice
- Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave
- Driver Gloves | King Snake
- Specialist Gloves | Fade
Knife Case Odds
n addition to weapon cases, Knife Cases offer players a chance to unlock rare and highly coveted knife skins, replacing gloves as the top-tier item in these cases. On average, you can expect to find a knife in about 1 out of every 385 cases, with a 0.26% chance of obtaining one. However, not all knives are available in every case. For instance, the Butterfly Knife, one of the most valuable and popular knives, is exclusive to certain cases. Here’s a look at some of the most wanted knives in CS2 and which cases you can find them in.
| Butterfly Knife cases | Skeleton Knife cases | Pandora’s Box Gloves cases | Vice Gloves cases | Kukri Knife cases |
| Operation Breakout CaseDreams & Nightmares CaseOperation Riptide Case | Fracture CaseShattered Web Case | Glove CaseOperation Hydra Case | Clutch CaseRevolution Case | Kilowatt Case |
Souvenir Package Odds
During major CS2 tournaments, special Souvenir Packages are dropped, containing exclusive souvenir weapon versions and tournament stickers that add to their collectibility. Unlike regular Weapon Cases, they don’t contain ‘Exceedingly Rare’ items like knives or gloves, but they do offer six different rarity levels instead of the usual five.
What makes Souvenir Packages unique is that they include exclusive souvenir skins with tournament stickers already applied, making them highly collectible and valuable to fans of the game. With Valve’s rule that each rarity is progressively harder to obtain, landing a Covert item from a Souvenir Package is even tougher than scoring a knife from a regular Weapon Case.
Now, let’s check out the official odds for each rarity tier.
| Rarity | Color | Odds | Simplified Odds |
| Consumer Grade | Gray | 79.872% | 4 in 5 |
| Industrial Grade | Blue | 15.974% | 1 in 6 |
| Mil-Spec Grade | Dark Blue | 3.328% | 1 in 31 |
| Restricted | Purple | 0.666% | 1 in 156 |
| Classified | Pink | 0.133% | 1 in 781 |
| Covert | Red | 0.027% | 1 in 3906 |
Simply put, the chances of getting the iconic Souvenir AWP Desert Hydra, a Covert skin that only comes from souvenir packages, stand at 0.0256%, or around 1 in 3,906.
Sticker Capsule Odds
CS2 Sticker Capsules allow you to apply stickers to your weapons. You can grab them from the in-game store, and Tournament Sticker Capsules pop up during major events. They can also be bought from the Steam Community Market after the tournaments.
Sticker Capsules have four rarity levels, whereas Weapon Cases have five. Using the rule that each rarity tier is five times harder to get, snagging an ‘Extraordinary’ sticker from a Sticker Capsule is just as difficult as pulling a ‘Covert’ skin from a Weapon Case. Both are at the top of their rarity list, so don’t expect to get them easily.
Let’s take a look at the official odds for each rarity:
| Rarity | Color | Odds | Simplified Odds |
| High Grade | Dark Blue | 80% | 4 in 5 |
| Remarkable | Purple | 16% | 1 in 6 |
| Exotic | Pink | 3.2% | 1 in 31 |
| Extraordinary | Red | 0.641% | 1 in 156 |
Understanding CS2 (CS:GO) Case ROI
When you crack open a CS2 case, knowing how Return on Investment (ROI) works can make a big difference. It’s all about figuring out if the skins you unbox are worth more than what you spent on the case and key.
First, you need to consider the case cost and the key. You’re taking a chance that whatever’s inside will be worth more than what you paid. Rare items like knives or Covert skins can bring in big returns, but let’s be real—they’re super rare.
Every case has odds tied to different rarities, and the rarer the item, the higher its value. That said, with only a 0.26% chance of getting something like a knife, you’ll usually end up with lower-value stuff like Mil-Spec skins. Knowing these odds gives you a better sense of what you’re up against.
One more thing to consider is market prices. Skins can increase or decrease in value depending on how rare they are and demand. Checking the market before opening cases helps you decide if it’s worth taking the chance.
Most players either break even or lose a little when opening cases. Scoring a rare item like a knife or Covert skin is the only way to get a good ROI, but it doesn’t happen often. If you’re just in it for the fun, that’s cool, but if you’re hoping to make a profit, the odds aren’t exactly in your favor.
In fact, sometimes it’s smarter just to buy the skin you want from the market. It might cost you more upfront, but you avoid the gamble and know exactly what you’re getting.
We checked the current odds, but remember that the CS2 market is always shifting. These prices are accurate for now, but if there’s any big movement in skins or cases, they could change.
| CS2 Case Name | Cost of Case (USD) | Cost of Key (USD) | Average Return (USD) | ROI (%) |
| Dreams & Nightmares Case | $1.40 | $2.49 | $0.70 | 47.05% |
| Danger Zone Case | $0.96 | $2.49 | $1.20 | 48.50% |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 3 | $10.99 | $2.49 | $8.15 | 61.37% |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 2 | $18.00 | $2.49 | $11.95 | 57.10% |
| CS:GO Weapon Case | $81.95 | $2.49 | $39.45 | 48.19% |
| CS20 Case | $0.73 | $2.49 | $1.26 | 50.53% |
| Clutch Case | $0.80 | $2.49 | $1.32 | 48.81% |
| Chroma Case | $4.00 | $2.49 | $2.66 | 66.46% |
| Chroma 3 Case | $2.91 | $2.49 | $1.82 | 62.42% |
| Chroma 2 Case | $3.16 | $2.49 | $2.15 | 68.14% |
How to Calculate Case Odds
So, you’re trying to see your chances of pulling a rare skin from CS2 cases? Let’s make it easy to follow.
Every case has its base odds for different rarities. Imagine Mil-Spec (blue) skins as the “common stuff” that shows up way too often, while Covert (red) skins are those rare gems you’re always hoping for. Usually, Mil-Spec skins pop up around 80% of the time. You’re drowning in them. But as you go up the rarity ladder, the odds get tougher.
Now, Valve has this fun little rule where each rarity is about five times harder to get than the one before it. So, if you’re constantly getting Mil-Spec, expect Restricted (purple) skins to be five times rarer. Classified (pink) skins? Even rarer. And Covert (red) skins? Practically unicorn-level rare with a 0.64% chance.
But wait, it gets better (or worse, depending on your luck). There’s also the chance of pulling a knife or gloves, those elusive golden drops. But brace yourself—they show up just 0.26% of the time, or 1 in every 385 cases. Basically, if you ever get one, you should celebrate like you hit the lottery.
Oh, and don’t forget the wildcard: StatTrak™ items. There’s a 10% chance that whatever you pull could be a StatTrak™ version, which tracks your in-game kills. This doesn’t apply to knives or gloves, but it definitely makes the regular skins a little more exciting.
| Case Type | Mil-Spec (Blue) | Restricted (Purple) | Classified (Pink) | Covert (Red) | Exceedingly Rare (Gold) |
| Chroma Case | 78.00% | 17.00% | 3.50% | 0.50% | 0.25% |
| Clutch Case | 79.00% | 16.00% | 3.50% | 1.00% | 0.50% |
| Revolution Case | 76.00% | 18.00% | 4.00% | 1.20% | 0.80% |
| Prisma Case | 80.00% | 15.00% | 3.50% | 0.75% | 0.30% |
Conclusion
In conclusion, this guide covers everything you need to know about CS2 case rarities before jumping into case openings. Knowing the odds lets you make better decisions and boosts your chances of scoring rare skins or special items.
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